Positional Rankings: Power Forwards (Preseason)

By: Drew Marion
 

1) Kevin Love Mr. Double-double will be back this year after only playing in 18 games due to hand and knee injuries. Everyone knows Love is a threat to score inside and out, and can grab rebounds seemingly at will. His passing skills are nothing to laugh at either: Love has averaged at least 2 assists per game each of the past 4 seasons.

2) Tim Duncan Duncan has been the model of consistency and outstanding play since he came into the league in 1997. But is this the year that his age finally starts to catch up to him? With the emergence of Kawhi Leonard and an improved bench, I doubt San Antonio leans on Duncan as much this year, keeping his minutes low and effectiveness high.

3) Kevin Garnett With Brooklyn this year, KG slides over to play the power forward spot with Brook Lopez playing center. Like Tim Duncan, Garnett’s minutes will be limited this year, but it’ll be interesting to see how rookie coach Jason Kidd does this. There are rumors that Garnett will be held out of back-to-backs.. If that’s the case, in the first month alone KG will be missing out on matchups against the Pacers, Clippers, and Grizzlies, all playoff teams from last year.

4) Zach Randolph It certainly helps playing alongside the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Marc Gasol, but Randolph is a great player in his own right. However, last year was a rough one until the playoffs came. Zbo scored 5 points less per game last year than he did two years ago, during his last full season. The continued development of PG Mike Conley should help Randolph this year, as will the implementation of a quicker offense under new coach Dave Joerger.

5) Blake Griffin Griffin recently came out and claimed that the addition of Doc Rivers as Head Coach will mean the end of Lob City. This might not be the best news, as that could indicate Griffin will play further away from the basket. While his eFG% on jump shots did improve last year compared to the season before, it still was only 44%. Griffin is still reliable to impact the game heavily on the glass, and yet another year with Chris Paul will give him plenty of opportunity to shine.

6) LaMarcus Aldridge The emergence of Damian Lillard last season put LaMarcus Aldridge out of focus for the Trail Blazers last year. Aldridge still put up 21 points and 9 rebounds per game last year, despite having his lowest field goal percentage since 2008-2009. It’s possible that Aldridge gets traded this year, and any team that picks him up will be getting a high caliber player who’s only 28.

7) Dirk Nowitzki A new starting backcourt for Dallas should be an improvement for both Dirk and the Mavericks as a whole. An injury plagued season saw Nowitzki dip below 20 points per game for the first time this millenium. He’s still a fantastic shooter, hitting 86% of free throws and over 41% of his 3-point attempts.

8) David Lee Lee played just under 37 minutes per game last year and shot over 51% from the floor and nearly 80% from the stripe. While these are solid numbers, Lee will need to improve upon an eFG of just .406 on outside jumpers. The Warriors like to spread the floor, and Lee could cause significant spacing issues. That said, he is a great inside player capable of 20-10 games regularly.

9) Pau Gasol After a down year, Gasol looks to be healthy and should once again be a top option for the Lakers. Dwight Howard is gone, and Steve Nash should be healthier this year. Kobe and Gasol have played very well together for years now, so there’s little doubt his numbers will trend upwards with Bryant’s return also. For the first time in his career, Pau shot less than 50% from the floor (46%) and scored less than 17 points per game (14); this is more likely an aberration than the start of a trend.

10) David West The addition of Luis Scola could mean a drop in minutes for West this season, but West will still be a main contributor for the improved Pacers. Indiana was over 8 points better per 100 possessions last year with West on court than with him off, and his defensive play alongside Roy Hibbert is one of the main reasons Indiana was the second best team in points allowed last season.

11) Carlos Boozer While his contract has become an albatross and his name comes up every other day as an amnesty candidate, Boozer actually had a very productive campaign last year without Derrick Rose. Boozer nearly averaged a double-double last season, with 16 points and just a shade under 10 boards per game. It’s well known that his defense is what holds him back, but a healthy Rose and Joakim Noah, along with having defensive whiz Tom Thibodeau as head coach, has tempered that weakness for the most part.

12) Greg Monroe Considering he had 70% of his shot attempts come inside, Monroe should have shot better than 48% from the floor last year. The stacked frontcourt of Monroe, Andre Drummond, and Josh Smith should put immense pressure on other teams, but Monroe will have to improve his numbers both inside and outside. He’s only 23, so Monroe should be primed for improvement both this season and for the next several years.

13) Serge Ibaka Ibaka is not a big offensive threat for the Thunder, and that was proven in last years playoffs. During the regular season, Ibaka shot 57% from the floor. But without Westbrook in the postseason, that number plummeted to below 44%. His real value comes on the defensive end, where he led the league with 242 blocked shots.

14) Nene Nene could split time at the four and five this year, depending on what packages they rotate with fellow big men Emeka Okafor and Trevor Booker. There’s no doubt that having Bradley Beal and John Wall healthy this year makes the Wizards much, much better (nearly +12 points per 100 possessions in an admittedly small sample size). Nene is useful as a pick-and-roll partner for Wall with his shooting ability, but will be relied upon as a consistent rebounder for Washington.

15) Kenneth Faried Faried shot over 55% from the floor last year, while grabbing over 9 rebounds per game. This was in only 28 minutes per game, a number that might only increase slightly due to JJ Hickson’s presence on the bench, and the fact that Faried is a bit undersized for the power forward position. He was 8th in the league last year in rebounds per 48 minutes, thanks in large part to his ability collecting offensive boards.

16) Paul Millsap With the opportunity to lead an offense at hand, Millsap should see a bump in both production and minutes this year. He did average almost 23 points per 48 minutes last year while a rotating member of Utah’s frontcourt, 10th highest among power forwards last year.

17) Tristan Thompson The additions of Andrew Bynum and rookie Anthony Bennett could indicate a drop in minutes for Thompson. However, Bynum is coming off an injury and Bennett is just a rookie, so the PF spot belongs to Thompson, if only for now. He is a consistent double-double threat, and is only 22. Look for him to continue building upon an improved sophomore campaign.

18) Ryan Anderson Anderson was 4th last year among qualified power forwards in 3-point percentage. While known for his prowess from beyond the arc, Anderson will need to improve his rebounding if he wants to lock down a starting spot for the young and talented Pelicans; he ranked 35th is rebounds per 48 minutes.

19) Derrick Favors Millsap is gone, and Favors has his new contract extension. For the first time in his career, Favors will be the starter in Utah. The departure of Al Jefferson brings even more pressure on Favors to have a breakout year. Favors brings athleticism and defensive skill, but had the worst shooting percentage of his career last year.

20) Amir Johnson He’s finally a legitimate starter now, but Johnson’s scoring probably won’t rise too much considering the players around him in Toronto. Shooting over 50% from the floor can be expected, though, as will solid contributions on the defensive glass.

21) Glen Davis Big Baby is injured, and there is a threat that either Jason Maxiell and Tobias Harris could take away the starting job even after Davis returns. With an eFG of only 44%, the possibility of Davis only coming off the bench is real.

22) JJ Hickson As stated above, Hickson could challenge Faried for minutes in Denver. As a starter in Portland last year, Hickson averaged a double-double and shot over 56% from the floor, despite playing out of position as a center.

23) Luis Scola Scola will be coming off the bench for Indiana, as the Pacers added depth and talent to their second unit this offseason. Scola provides a legitimate scoring option when Paul George and David West are taken out. Interestingly, Scola only trailed Blake Griffin in rebounds per 48 minutes 12.2-11.9.

24) Andrea Bargnani The focus of one of the more interesting offseason moves, Bargnani will now be the starter for the Knicks. He doesn’t provide much defense, and really is only known for being a 3-point specialist, although it’s hard to call a guy averaging less than 31% on those shots last season a specialist. Chances are it’ll be even more difficult for him to find his spots as he plays alongside Carmelo Anthony.

25) Amar’e Stoudemire Stoudemire will be playing behind the man who immediately precedes him on the list. It’s a shame that Stoudemire has injury problems of his own, otherwise it’d be a good bet that he reclaims the starting spot in place of the oft-injured Bargnani. He may not play much this year, after only playing in 29 games last season.

26) Ersan Ilyasova With no reliable scoring option outside of OJ Mayo (if he can be classified as reliable), the Bucks will look to Ilyasova to become that second threat. He did average 17 points and 9 rebounds after the All-Star break last year, so the potential is there.

27) Reggie Evans Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. Evans appears on this list for one reason only: his rebounding skill. Last year, Evans averaged a whopping 21.7 rebounds per 48 minutes. Number 2 on that list was JJ Hickson, with only 17.1. Evans should get solid minutes this year playing behind the aged Kevin Garnett, and with all the scorers on the Nets’ roster, it’s clear Evans will be able to focus on the best part of his game.

28) Brandon Bass Unlike Reggie Evans, Brandon Bass is not a terrific rebounder, only getting 9.1 boards per 48 minutes, better than only 4 qualifying power forwards last season. Despite this, Bass will get the chance to start for Boston team lacking significant talent this year.

29) Taj Gibson Gibson brings good defense off the bench for the Bulls, something coach Thibs loves. With Joakim Noah’s lingering injuries, the Bulls could play both Gibson and Boozer together at times. While known for his defense, the Bulls offense was actually 4.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court last season.

30) Jason Thompson Even if Thompson wins the starting job over Patrick Patterson, Patterson’s presence will eat into his minutes. Additionally, Thompson will be the second choice on what is clearly DeMarcus Cousins’s team. As the starter last year, Thompson still shot over 50% from the floor and chipped in nearly 11 points per game.