Why the Eastern Conference playoffs matter (even if the Heat and Pacers kill everyone)

With the season-ending injury to Derrick Rose and the absolutely atrocious basketball currently being played in New York City, it seems a foregone conclusion that the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat are on a collision course for a Eastern Conference Finals rematch. The following circumstances are the only things that could prevent this highly anticipated series, arranged in descending order of likelihood.

1. A major injury happens to one or more player on the Pacers or Heat.

2. A major trade happens with one of the Eastern Conference teams acquiring a superstar

3. Derrick Rose, after a visit to Germany, returns with some child's knees as replacements

4. Bradley Beal is actually as good as I picture him in my dreams/on our podcast

5. Michael Jordan convinces the league to allow him out of retirement, and, after a visit to Germany, he drops 35 PPG and leads the Bobcats to the Finals.

6. The Apocalypse happens, thus preventing the Eastern Conference Finals from happening

7.The Nets or Knicks rebound and are actually good

All sarcasm aside, it seems as if the collective mentality about the playoffs in the Leastern Conference is that they should be ignored until the conference finals. This makes sense, as much of the basketball will not be playoff-quality, and the Pacers and Heat are the two best teams in the conference by far. At the very least, the national audience will probably ignore most series that do not feature one of these two teams.

However, even if the Pacers and Heat dominate the conference as much as is anticipated, it would be foolish to ignore the benefits other teams can gain from playoff victories long term.

It may seem like a narrative spun by journalists that teams gain valuable experience by postseason runs that end short of a title, but it is true. Of the last 10 NBA champions, only 2 did not advance to the conference semifinals the year before. One of these teams was the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks, whose core group had been through several playoff runs, but were upset as the 1 seed the year before Dirk Nowitzki led them to the title. The other team was the 2007-08 Boston Celtics, who were a team led by three veterans, two of whom were acquired just before the season and had playoff experience of their own. In short, teams that win championships have core players that have been through the process before.

There are a few explanations for this, but most boil down to the fact that the playoffs are very different than the regular season. Playing a team in seven straight games leads to adjustments on a level not seen in the regular season. Teams know each others tendencies like never before. Rotations are handled differently. There are no back-to-backs, and every game will be against a competent team.

Also, no matter how conditioned players are, a championship run requires more mental and physical durability than any regular season. Players on a championship team play between 16 and 28 extra games, and the intensity of these games is unmatched during the regular season. The best way to prepare for the rigors of a postseason is to have been through it before.

With this in mind, there are a few teams that would really benefit from making the playoffs and winning a series.

Cleveland Cavaliers The Cavaliers are currently 6 games under .500, and look like a wreck on both sides of the ball. But if the Cavs can rebound and make good on Dan Gilbert's guarantee of making the playoffs, the team would undoubtedly gain valuable experience. Cleveland is a young team, and most of its key players haven't experienced any postseason success. And another trip to the lottery would mark a third straight year that Kyrie Irving didn't make the playoffs to start his career. Eventually, a superstar has to at least carry his team to the top half of the league, and this year would be a good time for Irving to do it in the lowly Eastern Conference.

Detroit Pistons The Pistons are another team that hasn't seen the playoffs in a while. It has been four years since the Pistons have played a postseason game and this new-look team could use a playoff series to determine if it can win as currently constructed. Teams will have time to adjust to the Pistons ultra-big lineup in the playoffs, and it remains to be seen if that offense can be successful. A trip to the playoffs can go a long way in showing which direction this team needs to go in to improve.

Charlotte Bobcats Don't look now, but the Bobcats are currently in 8^th place in the standings. Although it is unlikely that the team retains its spot, the Bobcats could start to change its reputation as the league's laughingstock by making the playoffs and competing hard in them. If the team did the unthinkable and somehow won a playoff series or even just went to six or seven games in the first round, the team would surely buy in even more to Steve Clifford's defensive approach, and it might attract some fans. It's unlikely it'll ever be a free agent hotspot, but maybe players would stop avoiding Charlotte like its the plague.

Brooklyn Nets If the Nets make the playoffs, Mikhail Prokhorov may decide to not execute Jason Kidd. Kidd would probably still be exiled to Siberia, but it's still a step up from the alternative.

Washington Wizards The Wizards are a young and upcoming team, and, after a rough start, have surged up to 5^th place in the conference. John Wall and Bradley Beal would benefit from having defenses key on them for a series, and Washington wouldn't lose face after a win-now move sending their protected first-rounder to Phoenix. The worst thing that could happen to the Wizards is to just miss the playoffs, and owe its pick to Phoenix with nothing to show for their season. If Washington can continue its hot play (the team has won 7 of 10), it could be in for a valuable playoff run.

The Cavaliers and the team that could have been

The Cavaliers front office isn't afraid to make bold moves, and this is a good thing. In an NBA where there is too much group-think, the Cavs choose to make every move on how they evaluate players, not on how other teams do.

However, when a team goes out on a limb in three straight drafts, that team leaves itself open for criticism if the moves don't work out. And in the Cavaliers case, this is especially true. It is not that the team now has no options; there will be cap room going forward and the Cavaliers have a star in Kyrie Irving. Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine how exciting the team would be in Cleveland if the Cavaliers handled a few things differently.

To be fair, the Cavaliers got the most important decision right: taking Kyrie Irving over Derrick Williams. It is easy to forget, but, with Irving coming off an injury-plagued season at Duke, some thought Williams was the better pick. Irving looks like he'll be a superstar for years, and Williams has been mostly a bust. So give the front office in Cleveland credit for this.

However, imagine if the Cavaliers made the following moves, all plausible ideas at the time (and not just revisionist history...

Take Jonas Valanciunas instead of Tristan Thompson It is hard to fault the Cavaliers too much for reaching on Thompson. He has turned into a valuable role player, as a high-motor player with a good feel for the game. However, Cleveland passed on Valanciunas, who is a legit 7-footer with ball skills and court vision. When Andrew Bynum isn't playing, the Cavaliers are an undersized team up front. Having Valanciunas would certainly solve that problem, and would remove a player from the logjam Cleveland has at power forward

Take Harrison Barnes instead of Dion Waiters This may be the hardest call on the list. Cleveland certainly reached on Waiters, but the consensus pick at the time would have been Thomas Robinson, who has not worked out so far either. Without Thompson on the team, it's certainly a possibility Cleveland would take Robinson with the fourth pick. However, the thinking here is that the Cavaliers saw that a team with Irving (who is still an awful defender) would need a good defender on the perimeter. That, plus better shooting than Waiters offers, would have been enough for the Cavs to reach slightly on Barnes, who has turned into a fine player for the Warriors with tremendous upside.

Take Victor Oladipo instead of Anthony Bennett It's still too early to call Bennett a bust, but he has been awful so far and doesn't look ready to contribute this year. The Cavaliers have sworn that they will make the playoffs this year, and the NBA-ready Oladipo would have combined with Barnes to form an excellent perimeter defending pair. He also moves well without the ball for a rookie, and the Cavaliers desperately need more movement from their guards when Kyrie has the ball.

Keep Shaun Livingston and don't sign Jarrett Jack Jack is a nice player, but he doesn't exactly fit on a team with a ball-dominator like Irving. Livingston has been a great player for the Nets so far, and is a much cheaper option.

Instead of signing Andrew Bynum, overpay slightly for Paul Millsap The Bynum signing was a good gamble by the Cavaliers, but Millsap might have been the steal of the offseason. With Valanciunas in the fold and no logjam at power forward anymore, the Cavaliers could have offered Millsap a lot more money than the Hawks gave him in exchange for a team option in year two. A two-year, $25 million deal with a team option in year two maintains flexibility and gives the Cavaliers a scorer currently averaging 15.8 PPG on 53% shooting.

Use the savings on the Jarrett Jack contract to sign a shooter The Cavaliers would still have plenty of cap room due to the discount Livingston provides. A shooter off the bench would make this team even better. Coincidentally, the Jack contract was very similar to the contract given to Kyle Korver. Maybe Korver would leave Atlanta to play with this exciting team for the same amount of money. If that didn't work, one of the other cheaper shooters on the market would have helped.

So let's compare the two Cavaliers teams...

Current team                         

PG Kyrie Irving                    

SG C.J. Miles

SF Earl Clark

PF Tristan Thompson

C Andrew Bynum

Bench Jarrett Jack

Bench Dion Waiters

Bench Alonzo Gee

Bench Anderson Varejao

Bench Anthony Bennett

Hypothetical team

PG Kyrie Irving

SG Victor Oladipo

SF Harrison Barnes

PF Paul Millsap

C Jonas Valanciunas

Bench Shaun Livingston

Bench C.J. Miles

Bench Alonzo Gee

Bench Anderson Varejao

Bench Kyle Korver

The hypothetical team certainly needs another big, and would have to find a veteran willing to play for the minimum or play Tyler Zeller a decent amount of minutes. But the starters fit much better together, with an excellent blend of offense and defense. Nobody needs the ball in their hands other than Irving, but the other players are all capable scorers. Also, four of the starters are young players who should only improve. There is also the potential for a deadly offensive small-ball lineup when Millsap rests, with Barnes at the four and Korver at the three.

The Cavaliers are fine going forward, and will have plenty of cap room to try and improve. However, it is difficult to not imagine how easily this could have been the most exciting up and coming team in the league.

Podcast 2

Donnie and Drew share their thoughts on the start of the NBA season, and what we can take away from the small sample size.

Will Minnesota make the playoffs?

By: Drew Marion

The Timberwolves have missed the postseason every year since 2004, and the rebuilding efforts have not proven worthwhile up to this point. There is no doubt that Minnesota has talented players, but they have not yet been able to piece together a full season to creep into the playoffs.

This year that changes. It's early, but the T-Wolves have played well enough to warrant a closer look as a playoff contender. While they lack the talent and attention that Golden State, Oklahoma City, and the Los Angeles Clippers have and most likely won't be in the conversation for championship contention, Minnesota certainly looks like a quality playoff team.

While Minnesota did lose by 13 to Golden State on Nov. 6, their only other loss was by 1 point at Cleveland on the second night of a back-to-back. Interestingly, these are also the only two games that Minnesota failed to score 100 points. Normally, it would be a concern if a team has to score 100 points to have a chance to win the game, but in the West, 8 of the 15 teams are averaging over 100 points against. There are only 2 teams in the entire conference giving up less than 96. Most teams are running high-temp offenses focused on piling on points. Minnesota fits in very well with this style of play, and has the scorers to keep pace with just about any team in the league. They lead the West in point differential, at +7.1 per game. Scoring is not a problem for the Timberwolves this season.

Currently, the T-Wolves are 5-2 and have the 3rd best record in the Western Conference. Chances are this won’t be where they end up at the end of the regular season, though, and that ranking could drop in the coming weeks. At the end of November and beginning of December, Minnesota will play a 7 game stretch that includes matchups with Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Miami, Houston, Dallas, and Indiana; all teams with winning records.

However, Utah and Denver have each yet to be played, meaning there are 8 games left against opponents who thus far have a combined 1 win. There are winnable games left on the schedule for the Timberwolves, despite the depth of the Western Conference.

The key to Minnesota’s success will be their health. Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love have yet to play a full season together, but each appear to be healed from their previous injuries. Love’s twice-fractured right hand is not bothering him anymore, and Rubio came back from ACL surgery last December after injuring it near the end of the 2011-2012 season.

While their two stars are healthy, injuries to backup center Ronny Turiaf and projected starting small forward Chase Budinger have already occurred. Budinger had arthroscopic knee surgery at the beginning of October, and hasn’t been given a timetable for a return. Turiaf fractured his right elbow going up for a rebound against Oklahoma City earlier this month, and, like Budinger, has no timetable for a return.

Injuries are never good news for a team, but, in this case, the T-Wolves are deep enough at these spots to afford them. Corey Brewer has stepped in for Budinger and has reached double digit points in each game this year. Starting center Nikola Pekovic has played well given his increase in minutes, though his shooting percentage is nearly 12 points lower than it was last year. Derrick Williams has provided enough flexibility to comfortably play either forward position with Love playing well as a center for extended periods of time.

If the Timberwolves are able to weather through these injuries like they have already, they would be in a great position once these players are able to return.

The reason this team has been able to get off to such a hot start is simple. They have two starters named Kevin, and each have played tremendously well to start the year.

Minnesota knew it needed a second scorer to complement Love on offense, so they signed Kevin Martin during the offseason. Martin ranks 6th in the league in scoring at 23.9 points per game, and his 3-point percentage of 57% is tops among all players with at least 5 attempts per game. His value as a reliable scoring option is critical as teams are no longer capable of focusing on just Kevin Love anymore, and Love is certainly reaping the benefits.

Kevin Love is having an MVP-caliber year. Over the weekend, he barely missed out on a triple-double against Dallas last Friday (35 points, 15 rebounds and 8 assists) only to have Rubio reach that mark against the Lakers two days later (12-10-14). Rubio’s efforts could be a sign of things to come, but his play this year is largely overshadowed by what Love is doing.

Love leads the league in rebounding at 14.4 per game, and is second in scoring at 26.9 per game. He also leads all power forwards with 4.7 assists per game. In fact, that's even more than Jeremy Lin and Derrick Rose both have this season. Love’s shooting percentage is at 47%, the highest in his career, and is making contributions all over the floor. Not surprisingly, he again is leading the league in double-doubles, and has gotten one in each game this year.

Love's PER of 29.96 would be the highest for any player not named LeBron James since the end of the 2010 season. Obviously, the MVP award is LeBron’s to lose, but given Minnesota’s run of mediocrity over the past decade, Love should garner serious consideration for the award at the end of the year for the award.

His case for MVP will only be strengthened by Minnesota reaching the playoffs. It’s hard to dethrone King James any season, and if Paul George can lead Indiana to the number 1 overall seed, he could steal some votes away. But if Love is able to lead the Timberwolves to the playoffs for the first time since 2004, and plays at or near this level for the remainder of the season, the award should be his.

The Next Step: How Paul George becomes a top 10 player

Anyone who didn't know about Paul George was probably surprised to see a third-year player go toe-to-toe with LeBron James in the conference finals. George and the Pacers ultimately fell short against the Heat, and any chance of dethroning the champs this year may hinge on George, the team's best player, taking another step.

But George isn't sneaking up on anyone this year. And, after taking a decisive step forward last season and moving from #75 to #13 in ESPN's NBA rank, can George actually get much better?

While it may seem like George has peaked, there is still room for significant growth on the offensive end. Specifically, if George can be a much more efficient player, he could become one of the ten best players in the league.

George's defense has grown to the point where he is one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. While George was playing small forward, opposing small forwards only had a 12.0 PER, according to 82games.com. (An average PER is 15.0, and 12.0 is worse than the top 42 qualifying small forwards in the league). His height, length and athleticism cause problems for any small forward, and it's his size and instincts that make him the prototype defender for James and Kevin Durant.

As he gets more experience, George should be able to be more disciplined on the defensive end as well. George tied with Matt Barnes for the second most fouls per game by small forwards last season at 2.9 (Carmelo Anthony led this category at 3.1, and this was a result of playing a ton of power forward as well). With Danny Granger's health still an uncertainty, the Pacers will continue to rely on George as much as last year. He must trust his defensive instincts and resist from the unnecessary reaching fouls he picks up from time to time.

He should lower his foul total from last season, but George's defensive improvement will be incremental. Where he must make more drastic improvement is on the offensive end.

His raw numbers look decent enough, as he averaged 17.4 points per game and 4.1 assists per game last year. However, George was not very efficient offensively.

With Granger missing almost the entire season, George was asked to be a high usage player for the first time in his career. And, like most players in their first high-usage season, George had some problems with turnovers. He was fourth among small forwards in turnovers per game last season, and two of the players ahead of him (Durant and James) have a significantly higher usage rate.

George had a big problem with decision-making in the pick and roll early on in the season. George tried to split the double team too often, and, according to an article by Zach Lowe, Pacers coach Frank Vogel almost scrapped all pick and roll sets for George during his turnover prone first few months.

Fortunately for Indiana, George improved in the pick and roll and his turnover rate went down as the season went on. However, he still forced the issue too much when Indiana went into a scoring rut. The Pacers went through bouts of inconsistency on offense, and George would often respond by trying to handle too much of a scoring load by himself. He must continue to trust the offense, and this, coupled with the natural progression of a player in his second year as a main option, should reduce his turnover rate this season.

Another area that George needs to improve is his shooting percentage. George ranked 19^th out of 25 qualifying small forwards in field goal percentage. His 42.7% shooting pales in comparison to other elite small forwards. Even with their high usage ratings, LeBron James and Kevin Durant shot 56.5% and 51.0%, respectively. Even Carmelo Anthony shot 44.9%.

For a player who shot a lot from the outside, George shot a respectable 36.2% from 3 last season. But George had issues inside the arc, shooting only 45.7%. For a shotmaker like George, this number has to be higher.

Part of George's issues came from his shot selection. As mentioned before, George sometimes had problems forcing the action. This was especially true when he got offensive rebounds. Often, George felt the need to a force up a difficult shot, as his eFG% after he grabbed an offensive rebound was only 41.0%, according to nbawowy.com. This was the lowest among all qualifying Pacers.

George also didn't perform as well as expected around the basket. He tended to fade away on too many shots near the rim, and, as a result, didn't draw enough contact.

George only averaged 3.5 free throws per game last year, half the number of James and much less than Durant's 9.3. All elite perimeter players can get to the rim when their shots aren't falling, and this is an ability George hasn't shown consistently enough.

It may not seem like a big deal, but getting to the free throw line is a crucial part of most superstars' games. 9 of the top 10 players in free throws attempted last season were All-Stars. Paul George must learn to get more contact in the lane, and get to the line more often. If he can, not only will he get more high percentage looks at the line, but some of those missed two point attempts in the lane will go away as well. His shooting percentage and points per game would both receive a bump, giving him a significant spike in efficiency.

The early returns on George this season are very good. Obviously, it has been only three games, but George has shown a conscious effort to get to the line, averaging over 7 free throws a game so far. While it is doubtful that will average 25.7 all season, if he can continue to be efficient, George could finally become a top 10 player in the league.

UTAH JAZZ ARE PLACING THEIR BETS, AND THE GAMBLES ARE WORTH IT

By: Drew Marion

Don’t expect Utah to compete for the title this year. In fact, don’t expect them to compete for a playoff spot either. However, this does not mean you should be ignoring what the front office is doing right now.

The Jazz recently signed Derrick Favors to an extension, as his rookie contract expires after this year. The terms of the contract are for 4 years and $47.7 million dollars. In addition, they have until 11:59 PM on Halloween night to sign Gordon Hayward to an extension before the deadline. The two sides are in talks, and all signs indicate that Hayward could end up with more money than Favors.

Why are they paying for such unproven commodities? Hayward couldn’t start over Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye last year, and Favors has 17 starts over the past two seasons. Well, these gambles could end up paying huge dividends for the Jazz in the coming years. First, let’s look at how Utah's salary cap would be affected.

If we assume that Hayward gets 4 years for around $14 million a year, the Jazz have set up their roster with plenty of flexibility once the season ends. The only guaranteed deals they’ll have for next season are Hayward, Favors, Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert, Jeremy Evans, and the recently extended Enes Kanter and Alec Burks. If Hayward is extended at the anticipated price, the Jazz would only have $40.5 million in player salaries. With the salary cap expected to rise from $58.6 million to over $60 million next year, Utah has plenty of space to sign a quality free agent as well as both 2014 first-round picks.

So, Utah provided themselves with cap room. Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean anything if the players on the roster don’t perform. Fortunately, the players Utah has singled out here have a great chance to outperform these contracts.

With Trey Burke out for up to 3 months due to a broken finger, Hayward will have even a bigger role on offense for the Jazz to start the year. He is a terrific 3-point shooter at over 41% last season, but also has the size to post up smaller defenders. His pick-and-roll ability is improving, something that can also be said about Derrick Favors.

Hayward averaged 14 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists off the bench last year, while also providing quality defense. He is 6’-8”, and has the quickness to defend multiple positions. Just last season Hayward held opposing shooting guards and small forwards to PERs of 13.6 and 12.4. Obviously, some credit must be given to the overall structure of the team last season, but those numbers indicate Hayward is an above average, versatile defender.

It’s difficult to have an opinion on a contract that isn’t signed, or might not be signed at all given how close we are to the deadline. But looking at the extensions given last year to first rounders from 2009, it’s clear that 4 years for $14 million isn’t farfetched. James Harden received his 5 year, $60 million deal while DeMar DeRozan got 4 years for $38 million. Hayward is not the offensive presence that Harden is, though he was 11th among shooting guards in points per 48 minutes with 23.2 last year.

Hayward will certainly get more than DeRozan given his abilities on both ends of the floor. Not only is he a better defender, but Hayward shoots much better from beyond the arc. His ability to spread defenses out and go inside and use his size is certainly worth $14 million a year.

It might seem risky, but Hayward is a terrific two way player who’s likely to get larger offers this offseason due to his athleticism and offensive skillset.

Derrick Favors signed his extension already, and it is a steal. Even though he has yet to be a full time starter, Favors has all the tools to be a dominant big man. His defense is excellent already: Favors blocked 3.5 shots per 48 minutes last year, and altered countless more. With Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson gone, Favors will be looked to be more than a rim protector this year, though.

Derrick Favors is my pick for Most Improved Player this season. With the chance to start, Favors should put up very good numbers. Looking at his per 48 minute averages last season, Favors piled up 19.5 points and 14.7 rebounds. While that was as a backup for the most part, those are still impressive figures for a third-year player.

Given the state of free agents this offseason and next, it’s certain that a team looks at Favors’ potential and numbers and offers a max-level contract. If teams know they have no chance getting LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony next offseason, putting that money towards a quality defensive big man with a solid offensive game to boot would not be a mistake. Also, consider the likelihood that Favors is able to put his offensive game together, and approaches those averages per game. A max deal would be in the mix if his contract were to run out.

Comparing Favors' deal to the contract Serge Ibaka signed last year around this time with Oklahoma City makes the deal look even better. While Ibaka is another rim protector and defensive force, Favors has much more potential on offense. Ibaka will receive $12.3 million per year, so Favors will be paid less while providing much more value on both ends of the floor.

Even if Favors doesn’t become the type of player the the Jazz hope him to be, the extension still won't be crippling to the team. Surprisingly, $12 million a year still isn’t really overpaying for him. Again, looking at last year’s extensions given to first-round draft picks, Taj Gibson’s contract stands out. Another solid defensive big man, although his offensive prowess leaves him as a backup for the Bulls.

Gibson had per 48 minute averages of 17 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks. His contract is also for about $8.5 million a year. If Favors only plays as well as he did last year, he will outperform Gibson on the floor while getting about $3.5 million more a year. Add into this the rising salary cap for next year, and if Favors is considered overpaid, it would only be very slightly.

Both moves by the Jazz front office are terrific bets. Not only does Utah solidify their core on young talent with very high potential, but there is still room left in the cap to add free agents alongside next years draft picks. While Utah might not compete with the top teams in the West this year, they are building a foundation of great players on very team-friendly contracts.

D-Rose on Defense: Why the Bulls star helps on both ends

By: Donnie Kolakowski

Everyone is excited for Derrick Rose's return. As the former MVP averages almost a point per minute in the preseason, no one can resist the thought of the Bulls having a functional offense to go along with the terrific defense the team plays.

And while it is undoubtedly on the offensive end that the Bulls will benefit most from Rose's return, forgetting the defensive value he brings to the team is a big mistake.

For one thing, an upgrade depends on two things: the player coming to the team, and the player he is replacing. With Kirk Hinrich nursing his every injury known to man last season, Nate Robinson was forced to play over 2000 minutes for the second time in his career. The Bulls may have gotten everything they could've hoped for out of Robinson, but he still isn't getting any Defensive Player of the Year votes anytime soon.

Robinson may be given a pass with his height, but that was not the biggest issue on his defensive side of the ball. He had a poor sense of when to help, and gambled at the wrong times. He would often fall asleep while his man cut away from him.

The biggest problem in Robinson's defense is also one of Rose's biggest strengths. Robinson almost always got sucked into a screen on the pick and roll. This is a big problem in today's NBA, as the pick and roll is a vital part of almost every offense. However, it is an even bigger problem for the Bulls.

Unlike a lot of teams' systems, Tom Thibodeau's defensive scheme doesn't call for aggressive showing by the big man on pick and roll. The Bulls bigs typically try to get the ball handler to pick up his dribble around the elbow, and force a low-percentage midrange shot or a turnover. This requires mobile, intelligent bigs (Noah might be the best in the league at this strategy), but it also requires the guard to get through the screen quickly, or the defense can be exposed.

With Robinson on the floor last season, explosive playmakers were able to get the shots they wanted out of the pick and roll. Watch Russell Westbrook in February 24^th blowout of the Bulls, and see how easily he is able to get his shots out of the pick and roll. It is a huge reason why he ended up with 23 points on 10-17 shooting. Noah, an athletic big, can contain these players momentarily, but doesn't have a chance as Robinson fails to get around the pick time and time again.

After a failed attempt to stop the ball handler around the elbow happens, the offense usually gets into the lane and forces Thibodeau's Bulls to reluctantly help. The Bulls hate having to use help from the weak side, but poor pick and roll defense forced them to last season. It played a large role in opponents shooting 2.1% higher from three last season as opposed to 2011-12. When the help has to come from the weak side, it ultimately opens up the three point line.

Luckily for the Bulls, Rose's explosiveness has shown on both ends of the floor this preseason. Although his defensive plays have not been highlight reel material, Rose has been getting around screens with ease (Some of this may be because the screens set in the preseason aren't as great, but other players haven't been as great in the same situation). The defense isn't quite as effective with the statuesque Nazr Mohammed playing in lieu of Noah, but Rose's ability to recover quickly on screens has helped prevent easy looks for the opponent off these plays. If Rose can continue to be effective in his pick and roll defense, the Bulls should be contenders to lead the league in FG% against, like they did in 2011-12.

Another aspect of defense that the Bulls will need Rose to be effective at this season is his help defense. As stated previously, the Bulls do not like to help, but there are certain teams that the Bulls will need to help against to contain a superstar. Namely, any team that has a small forward who is the best player on the planet.

However, the problem with trying to contain LeBron James by sending help is that he is a willing and outstanding passer. If the help is there half a second too long, James will burn the Bulls by hitting one of his shooters or cutters.

This is why Rose has to be a part of the defensive game plan against James. His athletic ability and defensive instincts should allow him help on James and return to his man in time. Seeing as he will spend most of his time on Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole, Rose has to be able to flash by James at the right moments and force him to pick up his dribble or give the ball up to a teammate.

Thibodeau always preaches team defense, and it certainly will take a team effort to slow down the best player on the planet. Luol Deng is one of the best system defenders there is, but he needs help from the entire team. Putting an elite athlete with good instincts back on the floor should help.

So, while it is easy to see that Rose's playmaking abilities are the biggest benefit his team will get from the return, his defense should provide a boost as well. And the Bulls need every bit of improvement they can get if the team wants to be the one that dethrones the Heat.

Preseason Podcast: Positional Rankings, Award Predictions, and more!

In the preseason podcast, Donnie and Drew discuss their positional rankings heading into the NBA season. Then, they predict the award winners, including a bold pick by Donnie for ROY.

Postional Rankings: Centers (Preseason)

By: Donnie Kolakowski
 

1) Dwight Howard Yes, he had a down year last year. He still led the league in rebounding, and is the only center in the league in his prime and capable of being a 1A or 1B on a championship team. If he can come close to the game-changer on defense he was in Orlando, he'll distance himself even further from everyone at his position.

2) Marc Gasol Gasol finally got his due as one of the best centers in the league last year. He does everything well, and is one of the two best passing centers (along with Joakim Noah) in the league. His assist numbers should only go up this year, as the Grizzlies finally have a real shooter in Mike Miller.

3) Al Horford Since Gasol and Noah finally got their due as elite centers last year, Horford might be the most underrated player in the league. He was the only center to average 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists last year, and he's a tough defender on the low block as well. He has some nice post moves, and is quicker than most expect. It'll be interesting to see how his role changes on offense this year, with Josh Smith gone and Paul Millsap starting alongside him.

4) Joakim Noah: Noah's efficiency numbers went down last year as he was asked to do too much for a Derrick Rose-less Bulls team on offense. But he's extremely effective out of the high post, and his quickness provides a matchup issue for most centers. He's also the perfect center for Tom Thibodeau's defensive system, which requires the man in the middle to be very active.

5) Roy Hibbert If you watched Hibbert during the regular season, you probably think this ranking is too high. If you watched him in the Heat series, you probably think he should be #2. Hibbert's the best post defender in the league, and, although his lack of quickness can cause issues in the pick and roll defense, is a game-changer on both ends of the floor. Although he's #5 on this list, he's the ideal player to help dethrone the Heat, and that makes him as valuable as anyone else in his tier. 
6) Brook Lopez Lopez was the best offensive center in basketball last year, and has shown a versatile game that should mesh well with Kevin Garnett. He needs to improve his rebounding and be a more consistent defender to move up this list. 

7) Chris Bosh Bosh's value comes from the fact that he is an elite midrange shooter that doesn't sacrifice defense. Often, bigs who can shoot are a liability on the other end. As Rasheed Wallace proved for years, those who can shoot and defend are invaluable commodities, and, although he's not the elite defender that these other top tier bigs are, he still handles himself very well on that end of the floor.

8) Andrew Bynum Bynum will either be higher or lower on this list next year. If he stays healthy, his dominance in the post on both ends will undoubtedly move him past many of the players in front of him. If he can't stay healthy again (which seems likely at this point), he could be off the list entirely. For Cleveland, though, it's very little risk with a 19 and 12 guy as the reward.

9) Anderson Varejao It's a little unfair that a blood clot in his lungs helps aid in Varejao's “injury prone” reputation. It's completely fair, however, to wonder how he'll fare this year after the blood clot and surgery to remove it.

10) Tyson Chandler At 31, Chandler finally started to look a little old last season. He struggled with some injuries and got dominated by Hibbert in the conference semi-finals. If Chandler can't regain his athleticism, he could see his effectiveness decline quickly. Still, he's just two years removed from being the defensive player of the year.

11) Anthony Davis: Davis would be higher on the list if he stayed healthier last season. He did struggle more on defense than expected, but should progress rapidly as he understands the Pelicans system more and plays his first full year. If he can develop into an elite offensive player, he could become one of the premier big men in the league and a true franchise player. He most likely will be at power forward long-term, and will split time between center and power forward this season.

12) Omer Asik Asik is one of the most likely trade candidates to start the season, and could bring back a decent haul for the Rockets. The team is trying to sell an Asik and Howard frontline combination, but it's tough to see how that works offensively. Asik is on the best defenders and rebounders in the league, and proved last year he could handle a ton of minutes.

13) DeMarcus Cousins Known as one of the biggest enigmas in the league, Cousins must finally prove he can be an effective NBA player this season. He's shown flashes with a tantalizing skillset, but must finally deliver on both ends of the court after getting a big contract.

14) Al Jefferson Jefferson is a delight to watch on the low post, as his footwork and array of moves rival anyone in the league. He is, admittedly, a subpar defender, but at least he gives the woefully incompetent Bobcats offense a number one option.

15) Nikola Pekovic Pekovic broke out last year as a go-to guy for the Timberwolves. He's one of the most physically imposing players in the league, and has more touch than you'd think by looking at him. Also, because his game doesn't rely on elite athleticism, his skills most likely won't diminish as quickly as some of the others on this list.

16) Nikola Vucevic: The best player in the Dwight Howard trade that is still with the team that traded for him is surprisingly Vucevic, who developed as one of the best rebounders in the game last season. His development as a low-post option is an important part of the Magic rebuilding process.

17) Andre Drummond Along with Davis, Drummond is one of two young centers that could develop into a franchise player. Drummond has the talent to be the best defensive player in the league, and has largely untapped potential on the other end. It all could get derailed, however, if he can't improve his abhorrent free throw shooting.

18) Larry Sanders Fresh off a new contract, Sanders is ready to terrorize all who dare enter his path. He's an elite shot blocker with amazing athleticism, and always fun to watch on that end of the floor. If he can develop on offense with guards who will actually pass the ball this year, the Bucks could be getting a steal.

19) DeAndre Jordan Under Doc Rivers, perhaps Jordan can finally become the defensive stalwart some already give him credit for being. If he can, and he can grow into a Tyson Chandler type on offense, he can prove to be worth his contract.

20) Marcin Gortat As the only player on this list more likely to be traded than Asik, Gortat will largely take his talents elsewhere very soon. And those talents include a refined offensive game and decent rebounding and defense. He's not a remarkable talent, but would be an upgrade for several contenders. UPDATE: Gortat has been traded to the Wizards, and helps their playoff chances.

21) Tiago Splitter Almost certainly overpaid a bit, Splitter has certainly matured into a serviceable partner for Tim Duncan. He is much better than he looked against Miami, who are a matchup nightmare for him (and most people in the league, actually).

22) Jonas Valanciunas Valanciunas is poised to take a big step forward as he will be the starter in Toronto this season. He showed a much improved game in the summer league (and won the summer league MVP as a result), and should be higher on this list by next year.

23) Andrew Bogut The Warriors might be more reliant on Bogut to stay healthy this year, which is a scary thought given the history of injuries Bogut has suffered. But if he can stay healthy, he could be a presence in the middle for one of the West contenders.

24) Robin Lopez If healthy, Lopez can provide a defensive presence for a team that sorely needs it. He can also play successfully off all of the potent scorers Portland has in its rotation.

25) Enes Kanter With a full season as the starter, Utah will finally see what it has in Kanter. Kanter has already shown good instincts offensively, and should mesh perfectly alongside Derrick Favors.

26) Spencer Hawes Sadly, Hawes might be the best shooter in the 76ers starting lineup. He offers a little bit of offense for a team that is likely to struggle mightily in that regard, and Philadelphia hopes it can hide his defensive deficiencies.

27) JaVale McGee Denver has handed the keys to McGee as the starting center, and he has been anything but reliable so far in his career. He has shown some actual post moves in the preseason, and has spent years frustrating teams and fans with his enormous potential. Maybe this is the year he finally puts it all together. The Nuggets are counting on it.

28) Kosta Koufos The man McGee replaces in Denver is the exact opposite of JaVale: a physically limited player who knows his limitations and plays accordingly. Koufos is a stabilizing, if unspectacular player, and these qualities make him under appreciated.

29) Emeka Okafor Okafor's already dealing with a serious injury, and is on the downside of his career. If he can't stay healthy, Washington's playoff hopes take a serious hit. UPDATE: Okafor was sent to the Suns, who have the best training staff in the league. This bodes well for his recovery.

30) Chris Kaman Kaman has a little bit of range, even if he does shoot too much. He sure doesn't help on the defensive end, though. And he's likely to be challenged often on that end, since Steve Nash and Nick Young won't be mistaken for stoppers by anyone.

Positional Rankings: Power Forwards (Preseason)

By: Drew Marion
 

1) Kevin Love Mr. Double-double will be back this year after only playing in 18 games due to hand and knee injuries. Everyone knows Love is a threat to score inside and out, and can grab rebounds seemingly at will. His passing skills are nothing to laugh at either: Love has averaged at least 2 assists per game each of the past 4 seasons.

2) Tim Duncan Duncan has been the model of consistency and outstanding play since he came into the league in 1997. But is this the year that his age finally starts to catch up to him? With the emergence of Kawhi Leonard and an improved bench, I doubt San Antonio leans on Duncan as much this year, keeping his minutes low and effectiveness high.

3) Kevin Garnett With Brooklyn this year, KG slides over to play the power forward spot with Brook Lopez playing center. Like Tim Duncan, Garnett’s minutes will be limited this year, but it’ll be interesting to see how rookie coach Jason Kidd does this. There are rumors that Garnett will be held out of back-to-backs.. If that’s the case, in the first month alone KG will be missing out on matchups against the Pacers, Clippers, and Grizzlies, all playoff teams from last year.

4) Zach Randolph It certainly helps playing alongside the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Marc Gasol, but Randolph is a great player in his own right. However, last year was a rough one until the playoffs came. Zbo scored 5 points less per game last year than he did two years ago, during his last full season. The continued development of PG Mike Conley should help Randolph this year, as will the implementation of a quicker offense under new coach Dave Joerger.

5) Blake Griffin Griffin recently came out and claimed that the addition of Doc Rivers as Head Coach will mean the end of Lob City. This might not be the best news, as that could indicate Griffin will play further away from the basket. While his eFG% on jump shots did improve last year compared to the season before, it still was only 44%. Griffin is still reliable to impact the game heavily on the glass, and yet another year with Chris Paul will give him plenty of opportunity to shine.

6) LaMarcus Aldridge The emergence of Damian Lillard last season put LaMarcus Aldridge out of focus for the Trail Blazers last year. Aldridge still put up 21 points and 9 rebounds per game last year, despite having his lowest field goal percentage since 2008-2009. It’s possible that Aldridge gets traded this year, and any team that picks him up will be getting a high caliber player who’s only 28.

7) Dirk Nowitzki A new starting backcourt for Dallas should be an improvement for both Dirk and the Mavericks as a whole. An injury plagued season saw Nowitzki dip below 20 points per game for the first time this millenium. He’s still a fantastic shooter, hitting 86% of free throws and over 41% of his 3-point attempts.

8) David Lee Lee played just under 37 minutes per game last year and shot over 51% from the floor and nearly 80% from the stripe. While these are solid numbers, Lee will need to improve upon an eFG of just .406 on outside jumpers. The Warriors like to spread the floor, and Lee could cause significant spacing issues. That said, he is a great inside player capable of 20-10 games regularly.

9) Pau Gasol After a down year, Gasol looks to be healthy and should once again be a top option for the Lakers. Dwight Howard is gone, and Steve Nash should be healthier this year. Kobe and Gasol have played very well together for years now, so there’s little doubt his numbers will trend upwards with Bryant’s return also. For the first time in his career, Pau shot less than 50% from the floor (46%) and scored less than 17 points per game (14); this is more likely an aberration than the start of a trend.

10) David West The addition of Luis Scola could mean a drop in minutes for West this season, but West will still be a main contributor for the improved Pacers. Indiana was over 8 points better per 100 possessions last year with West on court than with him off, and his defensive play alongside Roy Hibbert is one of the main reasons Indiana was the second best team in points allowed last season.

11) Carlos Boozer While his contract has become an albatross and his name comes up every other day as an amnesty candidate, Boozer actually had a very productive campaign last year without Derrick Rose. Boozer nearly averaged a double-double last season, with 16 points and just a shade under 10 boards per game. It’s well known that his defense is what holds him back, but a healthy Rose and Joakim Noah, along with having defensive whiz Tom Thibodeau as head coach, has tempered that weakness for the most part.

12) Greg Monroe Considering he had 70% of his shot attempts come inside, Monroe should have shot better than 48% from the floor last year. The stacked frontcourt of Monroe, Andre Drummond, and Josh Smith should put immense pressure on other teams, but Monroe will have to improve his numbers both inside and outside. He’s only 23, so Monroe should be primed for improvement both this season and for the next several years.

13) Serge Ibaka Ibaka is not a big offensive threat for the Thunder, and that was proven in last years playoffs. During the regular season, Ibaka shot 57% from the floor. But without Westbrook in the postseason, that number plummeted to below 44%. His real value comes on the defensive end, where he led the league with 242 blocked shots.

14) Nene Nene could split time at the four and five this year, depending on what packages they rotate with fellow big men Emeka Okafor and Trevor Booker. There’s no doubt that having Bradley Beal and John Wall healthy this year makes the Wizards much, much better (nearly +12 points per 100 possessions in an admittedly small sample size). Nene is useful as a pick-and-roll partner for Wall with his shooting ability, but will be relied upon as a consistent rebounder for Washington.

15) Kenneth Faried Faried shot over 55% from the floor last year, while grabbing over 9 rebounds per game. This was in only 28 minutes per game, a number that might only increase slightly due to JJ Hickson’s presence on the bench, and the fact that Faried is a bit undersized for the power forward position. He was 8th in the league last year in rebounds per 48 minutes, thanks in large part to his ability collecting offensive boards.

16) Paul Millsap With the opportunity to lead an offense at hand, Millsap should see a bump in both production and minutes this year. He did average almost 23 points per 48 minutes last year while a rotating member of Utah’s frontcourt, 10th highest among power forwards last year.

17) Tristan Thompson The additions of Andrew Bynum and rookie Anthony Bennett could indicate a drop in minutes for Thompson. However, Bynum is coming off an injury and Bennett is just a rookie, so the PF spot belongs to Thompson, if only for now. He is a consistent double-double threat, and is only 22. Look for him to continue building upon an improved sophomore campaign.

18) Ryan Anderson Anderson was 4th last year among qualified power forwards in 3-point percentage. While known for his prowess from beyond the arc, Anderson will need to improve his rebounding if he wants to lock down a starting spot for the young and talented Pelicans; he ranked 35th is rebounds per 48 minutes.

19) Derrick Favors Millsap is gone, and Favors has his new contract extension. For the first time in his career, Favors will be the starter in Utah. The departure of Al Jefferson brings even more pressure on Favors to have a breakout year. Favors brings athleticism and defensive skill, but had the worst shooting percentage of his career last year.

20) Amir Johnson He’s finally a legitimate starter now, but Johnson’s scoring probably won’t rise too much considering the players around him in Toronto. Shooting over 50% from the floor can be expected, though, as will solid contributions on the defensive glass.

21) Glen Davis Big Baby is injured, and there is a threat that either Jason Maxiell and Tobias Harris could take away the starting job even after Davis returns. With an eFG of only 44%, the possibility of Davis only coming off the bench is real.

22) JJ Hickson As stated above, Hickson could challenge Faried for minutes in Denver. As a starter in Portland last year, Hickson averaged a double-double and shot over 56% from the floor, despite playing out of position as a center.

23) Luis Scola Scola will be coming off the bench for Indiana, as the Pacers added depth and talent to their second unit this offseason. Scola provides a legitimate scoring option when Paul George and David West are taken out. Interestingly, Scola only trailed Blake Griffin in rebounds per 48 minutes 12.2-11.9.

24) Andrea Bargnani The focus of one of the more interesting offseason moves, Bargnani will now be the starter for the Knicks. He doesn’t provide much defense, and really is only known for being a 3-point specialist, although it’s hard to call a guy averaging less than 31% on those shots last season a specialist. Chances are it’ll be even more difficult for him to find his spots as he plays alongside Carmelo Anthony.

25) Amar’e Stoudemire Stoudemire will be playing behind the man who immediately precedes him on the list. It’s a shame that Stoudemire has injury problems of his own, otherwise it’d be a good bet that he reclaims the starting spot in place of the oft-injured Bargnani. He may not play much this year, after only playing in 29 games last season.

26) Ersan Ilyasova With no reliable scoring option outside of OJ Mayo (if he can be classified as reliable), the Bucks will look to Ilyasova to become that second threat. He did average 17 points and 9 rebounds after the All-Star break last year, so the potential is there.

27) Reggie Evans Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. Evans appears on this list for one reason only: his rebounding skill. Last year, Evans averaged a whopping 21.7 rebounds per 48 minutes. Number 2 on that list was JJ Hickson, with only 17.1. Evans should get solid minutes this year playing behind the aged Kevin Garnett, and with all the scorers on the Nets’ roster, it’s clear Evans will be able to focus on the best part of his game.

28) Brandon Bass Unlike Reggie Evans, Brandon Bass is not a terrific rebounder, only getting 9.1 boards per 48 minutes, better than only 4 qualifying power forwards last season. Despite this, Bass will get the chance to start for Boston team lacking significant talent this year.

29) Taj Gibson Gibson brings good defense off the bench for the Bulls, something coach Thibs loves. With Joakim Noah’s lingering injuries, the Bulls could play both Gibson and Boozer together at times. While known for his defense, the Bulls offense was actually 4.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court last season.

30) Jason Thompson Even if Thompson wins the starting job over Patrick Patterson, Patterson’s presence will eat into his minutes. Additionally, Thompson will be the second choice on what is clearly DeMarcus Cousins’s team. As the starter last year, Thompson still shot over 50% from the floor and chipped in nearly 11 points per game.

Positional Rankings: Small Forwards (Preseason)

By: Drew Marion

1) Lebron James He is just better than everyone else. While he sometimes does play the 4 during Miami’s small ball lineups, it’s certainly possible that the low-risk high-reward acquisitions of Greg Oden and Michael Beasley will allow the Heat to keep him at the 3 much more often so they can match up with the bigger lineups of Indiana and the other top Eastern Conference teams.

2) Kevin Durant It seems that he won’t ever get his proper recognition due to what the King is doing. But, make no mistake, KD is scary good. After last year, Durant joined the exclusive 50/40/90 club, becoming its sixth member. He will be without PG Russell Westbrook to start the year, but OKC is still a team to fear.

3) Carmelo Anthony Carmelo spent the majority of his play as the Knicks’ power forward, but with the addition of Andrea Bargnani and the possibility of Amar’e Stoudemire coming back in time for the regular season opener, expect Melo to play the 3. He is a terrific scorer, and with Tyson Chandler manning the paint in New York, his defenses lapses are much less significant. He threw up 414 3-point attempts last year, compared to 203 the year before, all while increasing his average from deep. Should he continue that trend, he might grab his second consecutive NBA scoring title.

4) Paul George Paul George had better points, rebounds, and assists per game averages in last years playoffs compared to the regular season. It’s no surprise that his increase in production was the catalyst for the Pacers strong showing last May. It took Miami until game 7 of the Conference Finals to find a way to stop him, and that only coincided with George stopping himself by fouling out. If that play continues this year, it won’t be a shock to see the Pacers and Heat in another entertaining playoff series.

5) Paul Pierce It doesn’t matter that he is 36 years old, and it doesn’t matter that he will be wearing a new team’s uniform this year. What does matter is that Pierce is still a very good player, and should continue to have success in Brooklyn. Doesn’t hurt to be playing around several All-Stars, including one familiar face in Kevin Garnett.

6) Andre Iguodala Like Pierce, Iggy will also be playing for a new team this year. After agreeing to a sign-and-trade to come to Golden State, Iguodala joins a very talented, very young Warriors team led by the electrifying Steph Curry. He is known for being a very strong defensive wing player, but don’t discount his offense: He has averaged 15 points, 6 boards, and 5 assists for his career.

7) Luol Deng Deng led the league in minutes last year, and is looking to play himself into a huge contract once his runs out this year. Another strong defensive player, Deng has shown he is more than capable picking up the slack on the other side of the ball while Derrick Rose was out all of last year. His veteran leadership showed as the Bulls still picked up 45 wins without their star. With Rose back in the fold, expect Deng to flourish and raise his eFG% on outside jump shots back over 40% like it was 2 years ago.

8) Kawhi Leonard Spurs coach Gregg Popovich raves about him, and has said Leonard is primed to take huge steps this year. When Pop says things like that, I tend to listen. Playing alongside Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili have certainly helped Leonard along, and the Spurs have all the assets around him to facilitate long playoff run. Not surprisingly, San Antonio was nearly 5 points better on defense with him on the court than off.

9) Nicolas Batum Batum is now third fiddle with the emergence of Damien Lillard at point guard, but was actually better than Lillard at his position. A PER difference of 3.4 compared to Lillards .7 shows that Batum’s contributions on offense and at defense are more significant. Portland will need more games of this quality should they wish to compete with OKC for a division title.

10) Rudy Gay Gay shot better once he landed in Toronto, and his recent eye surgery should help him even further in that aspect. If that doesn’t happen, expect the Raptors to shift Gay to the 4 and bring him closer to the basket, like they did last year. Gay actually played 10% of the team’s total minutes at power forward last season. With sharpshooter Steve Novak waiting on the bench, that number could jump.

11) Chandler Parsons With all the news surrounding Dwight Howard, it’s easy to overlook other ancillary players on the Rockets’ roster. Parsons actually averaged 15/3/5 last season, and shot nearly 39% from 3-point range. It’s not difficult to imagine Parsons left wide open outside the arc as defenses collapse on Jeremy Lin drives and James Harden-Dwight Howard pick-and-rolls.

12) Uncle Shawn Marion Despite having the ugliest looking shot in the NBA, Marion still put up solid over 12ppg on 51% shooting. These numbers are skewed though; Marion played most of his minutes for Dallas as the power forward when Dirk Nowitzki was out recovering from knee surgery. A healthy Dirk and the addition of scorer Monta Ellis should take some pressure off Marion this season.

13) Josh Smith This feels weird for two reasons: 1) Josh Smith isn’t really a small forward, and 2) Smith is too talented to be this low on the list. But taking both reasons into consideration, this is where he goes. I can’t imagine any scenario in Detroit where having Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond on the court together won’t cause spacing issues. That said, Smith is still a good player, and is athletic enough to cover other wing players outside of the paint.

14) Kyle Korver Known as a 3-point specialist, Korver certainly came through in that aspect last year after hitting nearly 46%. The Hawks have Korver listed as their starting shooting guard, but Korver should play plenty of time as small forward with Louis Williams taking over the 2. Last season, Korvers eFG% was .632 as a small forward compared to .571 as a shooting guard.

15) Danilo Gallinari The departure of Iguodala will allow Gallinari to play more at the small forward spot, as opposed to splitting time between each forward position. Despite that split, Gallinari still had 75% of his shot attempts as jump shots from outside, a number that should increase slightly with Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee patrolling the paint.

16) Gordon Hayward Hayward is another player who split time at a different spot, this time as shooting guard. Even though he split time there, Hayward’s numbers were much better as a small forward: .540 to .466 eFG% with more assists (5.2 to 4.5) and less turnovers (2.1 to 3.4) per 48 minutes.

17) Danny Granger We have Paul George listed above as a great small forward, despite his listing as the starting shooting guard (he played 74% of the team’s minutes at SF last season). But the man he will be splitting time with is no slouch. Two years ago, Granger averaged nearly 19 points a game with 5 rebounds, while shooting 38% from 3. Not bad for a 6th man. the versatility he and George provide should help head coach Frank Vogel match up with the small lineups showcased by Miami.

18) Jeff Green Green is given the chance to start for Boston with Paul Pierce heading to Brooklyn. Unfortunately, with Pierce and Garnett gone, and Rondo coming off an injury, the talent level in Boston is pretty low. Add in to that the loss of Doc Rivers as a coach, and Celtic fans are due for a long season. Green however, played well off the bench last year, getting nearly 13 points and 4 boards a game.

19) Tyreke Evans Evans will be making the switch from shooting guard to small forward this year for the New Orleans Pelicans. However, it is feasible to assume Evans will spel Eric Gordon at the 2 instead of Austin Rivers coming in off the bench. Opposing small forwards had a better eFG% when Evans played the 3 (.491 to .453), so his defense will have to improve this season.

20) Tayshaun Prince Memphis signed Mike Miller in the offseason after Miami amnestied him to help make up for Prince’s offensive struggles. After the trade from Detroit, Prince’s points per game dropped 3 points and his 3-point FG% dropped from 43% to 36%. Miller should help from downtown, but Prince’s real value is on defense. Part of the league’s best defensive team last year, Prince, Zach Randolph, and Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol are looking for another spot in the Western Conference Finals.

21) Andrei Kirilenko With Kirilenko we have our first true backup on the list. However, he is backing up an aging Paul Pierce. Used wisely, Kirilenko will provide Pierce with much needed rest, and he’ll provide Brooklyn with great play. As a starter for Minnesota last year, Kirilenko shot over 50% from the field and averaged over 12 points, 2 assists, and 5 rebounds per game.

22) Wilson Chandler Wilson Chandler will team up with Danilo Gallinari to help replace the departed Andre Iguodala. While neither has the athleticism or defensive prowess of Iggy, Chandler should help spread the floor on offense. Last year, Chandler shot over 41% from 3 and averaged 13 points per game.

23) Thaddeus Young Young, like Josh Smith, will be making the transition from power forward to small forward. Unfortunately, Young isn’t the same caliber player as Smith. 53% of Young’s shot attempts came from inside last year, a number that will have to go down if Philadelphia hopes to compete this season. Step one will be to keep Young healthy: with him on the court last year, Philly had a net points differential of +10 per 100 possessions.

24) Jared Dudley The move to Los Angeles should help Dudley’s numbers, as CP3 and new head coach Doc Rivers look to lead the Clippers to a deep playoff run. Dudley averaged nearly 10/3/3 last year for lowly Phoenix, but his real value, like Thaddeus Young’s, might be shown in the net points differential of +7.8.

25) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist The Al Jefferson signing could be the best thing for the Bobcats. An extremely young team outside of their new center, Charlotte will rely on Jefferson to instill some stability and help Kidd-Gilchrist develop his game. It’s tough to say exactly how much that will help MKG’s shooting. With and eFG of 29% on jump shots last year, MKG struggled with his shot. He has the talent and athleticism to be a force from the wing.

26) Chase Budinger Budinger will miss about 6 weeks with a knee surgery, but will be the starter once he returns. At this point, it’s clear he is playing with guys much more talented than himself, although no one seems to stay healthy up in the Land of 100 Injuries. With everyone healthy, Budinger can improve on his below average PER of 12.66 and eFG of 48% from last year.

27) Harrison Barnes The addition of the versatile Andre Iguodala will hurt his minutes. No doubt Barnes improved during the playoffs last year, but his shooting will need to improve this season if he wants increased playing time. Last regular season, 71% of Barnes’ shots were jumpers, but he only had an eFG of 42% on those shots.

28) Caron Butler After being an auxiliary player for the Clippers, Butler will get the chance to become a focal point of the offense in Milwaukee. This is probably more an indictment of Milwaukee's talent level than a testament for Butler’s skill. He is a good spot up shooter, and can hit 3s pretty well, but if Butler has to be a top scoring option alongside OJ Mayo, things could be tough for the Bucks.

29) Gerald Wallace Like Butler, Wallace is an older veteran who was shipped off to a team with low expectations this year. Wallace’s numbers last year were down across the board, and his age finally started to show. On a Celtics team now that won’t feature Rajon Rondo for a while, (he might be able to make it back in December), Wallace will be looked to for solid minutes off the bench.

30) Shane Battier Fitting that members of the Miami Heat start and round out this list. Battier and James spent a lot of time on the court together last year, too, as James frequently switched to the power forward spot in their small lineup. Battier is 35, but should still see decent minutes this year. Mike Miller is no longer around to provide the Heat with a 3-point scoring threat off the bench, and Battier did hit 43% of this attempts from beyond the arc.

Postional Rankings: Shooting Guards (Preseason)

By: Donnie Kolakowski
 

1) James Harden As the only elite shooting guard entering his prime, Harden is a clear choice for the best of the bunch. He certainly needs to improve his defense, but got to the line more often than anyone in the league last season. He's a solid shooter, and should be deadly out of the pick and roll with Dwight Howard this year.

2) Dwyane Wade The Heat's chance at a threepeat might ride on Wade's ability to stay healthy. He's still a hyper efficient offensive player, who countered his loss of some athleticism with an array of moves in the post and lane. His defense is a little overrated, as he gambles often and makes his team play 5 on 4 about 5 times a game so he can complain to officials. But if Wade is healthy, the Heat are undoubtedly the favorites to win the title this year.

3) Kobe Bryant It's unclear when Bryant will be back, and what kind of player he'll be when he returns. But he's still one of the best post playing guards in the league (and of all time). His defense won't help on a team with Steve Nash, but Kobe will do anything in his power to catapult a subpar Lakers team into the playoffs.

4) Joe Johnson Johnson might be the most overpaid star in the league, but it doesn't mean he's not an effective player. He's shown an ability to make tough shots in isolation, and should be a solid spot up shooter this year with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in the fold.

5) Bradley Beal It might stun most people to see Beal this high after only a mediocre rookie season, but that's both an indictment on the lack of quality shooting guards in the league and a nod towards the amazing potential Beal has. He was a different player when John Wall came back from injury and will be a terror to guard if he continues to develop. He should be one of the best shooters in the game, and has improved his driving as well.

6) Klay Thompson Advanced metrics don't love Thompson, but they don't tell the potential he has. He's a spectacular shooter with length, and, if he improves on defense, should be the perfect backcourt mate for undersized Steph Curry.

7) Eric Gordon Gordon can't stay healthy, but if he ever did, he would show his great shotmaking skills. The Pelicans are going to need him to have an unprecedented bill of health this season and some chemistry to develop between Jrue Holiday and him quickly if the team is going to take the step forward this season it anticipates.

8) Kevin Martin There is no way around it; Martin is an absolutely atrocious defender. But he is an efficient offensive player who doesn't need to handle the ball to be effective.

9) Monta Ellis Ellis is much maligned for his inefficiencies and lack of defense, as he should be. But maybe, with Dirk Nowitzki as the first option, a point guard good at setting up his teammates playing alongside him, and a coach known for getting the most out of his players, Ellis can finally be an effective playmaker this year. Still, that backcourt of Calderon and Ellis is going to be amongst the worst defensive units in the league.

10) J.J. Redick came into the league as a simple spot up shooter, but has developed into a guard capable of making plays for himself and others. He's also a much more effective defender than he was at the beginning of his career, and should be a huge upgrade for the Clippers at shooting guard this season.

11) Jimmy Butler Butler got a lot of praise for his outstanding defense on elite wings (namely LBJ) and is the reason for optimism in Chicago. He is the first two-way shooting guard in the Thibodeau era, and, if he can knockdown jump shots, gives the Bulls a higher ceiling than they've had since Michael Jordan retired.

12) Gerald Henderson Henderson can get lost in the shuffle because of how terrible his team is, but he was an effective player for the Bobcats last season. He's a solid defender and shooter, and would be a good addition to any contender (whether the Bobcats would be willing to trade him this year is unclear).

13) Demar Derozan Derozan isn't a very good shooter, but he's athletic and uses his length to get shots off from all over the floor. It'll be interesting to see if Rudy Gay and him can ever truly mesh on offense.

14) Jamal Crawford Crawford is the best as what he does; coming off the bench and lighting up the scoreboard. He doesn't play much defense, but most third guards don't. He'll be a huge player for the Clippers this year, as he is their secondary playmaker behind Chris Paul.

15) J.R. Smith Smith had better stats last year than Crawford, but it's unlikely he'll be able to duplicate his outstanding year. He reverted to some bad tendencies (mostly decision making) during the playoffs, and doesn't do much for his team when his shot is off.

16) Danny Green Green exploded in the Finals and showed why he's one of the best spot up shooters in the league. If he can continue to improve his already solid defense, he can be the perfect 3 and D guy for a team that thrives off them.

17) Wesley Matthews Matthews can certainly score, and should improve his 3 point percentage this year. His development as a defender is key for Portland, as Nicholas Batum and him developing on that end could help a defense that was woeful last season.

18) Ray Allen If Stephen Curry is going to take the title as best shooter ever, he'll have to wrestle it from Allen. And although Allen can't log a ton of minutes or defend anymore, he can still shoot at an elite clip. He also hit one of the most important shots in the history of the NBA during the Finals last year, so there's that.

19) Aaron Afflalo Afflalo's shooting took a step back last year, and he'll need to improve that this year to hold off promising Victor Oladipo. He still can be a solid scorer and defensive player though, and two way wings are hard to come by this year.

20) Iman Shumpert Shumpert didn't have a great statisical year coming back from an ACL tear, but should be better this year. He needs to provide strong defense this year, as the Knicks will lean on a few guys to cover up the defense ineffectiveness of some of their rotation players.

21) Eric Bledsoe Bledsoe is still a relative unknown, but has the potential to shoot up this list next year. However, he'll likely be a full-time point guard by next year, so he probably will be off this list entirely.

22) O.J. Mayo Mayo actually had decent numbers last year, but being called out by his coach for not being ready to go some nights certainly doesn't help his case. He'll need to score a ton for the Bucks, who will be terrible on offense.

23) Lance Stephenson Stephenson had an up and down year, and is one of the streakiest players in the league. When he's on, he's a dynamic scorer. If he can lay off the turnovers and be more efficient, he could shoot up this list and get a big payday as a free agent after the year.

24) Manu Ginobili The decline of Ginobili is sad but real. It wasn't just the playoffs; he turned it over a ton last year and didn't shoot a high percentage. He just isn't the same guy anymore.

25) Victor Oladipo Oladipo will probably be up and down this year on offense as he plays with a rebuilding Magic squad. But his already elite defense should remain constant.

26) Dion Waiters Waiters is more talented than some of the guys in front of him, but had a terrible shooting year last year while dealing with a wrist injury. Finally healthy, he looks to take a step forward this year.

27) Lou Williams Williams will be coming back from a torn ACL, and hopes to regain the athleticism that made him a great scorer. The Hawks will need him to be healthy and effective on offense this year, as they look to replace Josh Smith's scoring and playmaking.

28) Tony Allen Allen is still one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, but it's so hard to keep non-scoring wings on the floor in today's NBA. He's part of the problem for a Grizzlies team that struggles to score some during the playoffs.

29) Alec Burks Burks will compete for the starting job for the Jazz and looks to grow with Utah's other young players. He certainly has a nice looking jump shot, and will look to improve his shot selection this year.

30) Randy Foye Foye will finally bring some shooting to a Nuggets team that was 25^th in the league in 3 point shooting last year. He should fit in nicely with Ty Lawson on offense.

Positional Rankings: Point Guards (Preseason)

By: Donnie Kolakowski

1) Chris Paul Although his struggles against other elite point guards (especially Tony Parker) are a concern, Paul still leads this talented pool of players. He is still the best floor general out there, leading the league with an amazing 4.26 assist-to-turnover ratio last season. He's also one of the best closers in the game, not afraid to take the big shot, but never forcing it either. His defense is somewhat overrated due to his high steals total (led the league last year), but he is still a capable defender as well.

2) Derrick Rose He may have missed all of last season, but Rose is still the only player not named LeBron to win the MVP in the last 5 seasons. His ability to change to change directions is matched only by Russell Westbrook, and he's a much better passer and defender than he is given credit for being. If he can stay healthy (and he looks great athletically in the preseason), he'll return to being one of the elite players in the game.

3) Russell Westbrook Westbrook is one of the most divisive players in the game, but his value to the Thunder was seen by all after his injury last season. Unfortunately, he has started out this season injured again, and, if he doesn't get fully healthy, the Thunder's title hopes will not be realized. Westbrook's an amazing athlete, and his shot chart understates his ability as he is great at getting to the free throw line. He still gambles a little too much on defense, but his athleticism makes it very tough for opponents.

4) Tony Parker Long one of the under appreciated players in the game, Parker finally got his due last season as he lead the Spurs to the NBA Finals. He's an elite midrange shooter, and his change of pace game makes him one of the toughest covers in the NBA. Parker will need to be at the top of his game for the Spurs to make another run.

5) Stephen Curry Curry has a chance to be the best pure shooter the NBA has ever seen, and is an excellent passer as well. When he gets into the lane, he often looks to set up his teammates. He needs to improve his finishing at the rim, and, most importantly, stay healthy. If Curry is on the floor, he's one of the most exciting players in the league.

6) Kyrie Irving Irving is the main reason for the Cavaliers optimism, and needs to remain on the floor. He has yet to play a full NBA season, but, if he can this year, will be one of the best offensive players in the league. He combines great athleticism with a good jump shot and an array of shots he can get off from any angle. He has the ability to be a decent defender, and needs to dedicate himself to that end of the court to move higher on this list.

7) Deron Williams It'll be interesting to see if Williams touches go down with Garnett and Pierce now in the fold. However, Williams has proven he can be effective both with the ball and off it, as he's a solid spot up shooter. His efficiency will most likely rise this year, and his biggest challenge will be getting the entire team involved.

8) Rajon Rondo Rondo is coming off an ACL tear, and will be asked to do more than ever when he returns for a rebuilding Celtics team. His lack of shooting will be an even bigger problem this year, as it will be difficult to play Avery Bradley and him together. But Rondo's still one of the best playmakers in the league, and seems to be gelling nicely with Brad Stevens.

9) John Wall Wall's shooting went from abysmal two years ago to subpar last year, which is certainly an improvement. His might be the fastest north-to-south player in the league, and it's that speed coupled with playmaking ability that give him elite player potential. He should be a perfect compliment to Bradley Beal in the Wizards backcourt of the future.

10) Jrue Holiday Holiday took a big leap forward last year, and will be asked to keep that level of play up as the Pelicans go all in on making the playoffs this season. His decision making was much improved, and he can still make shots from all over the court. He definitely needs to cut down on his turnovers (second in the league last season), but now heads to a more talented offense.

11) Damian Lillard Lillard surprised everyone with his amazing play during his Rookie of the Year campaign. He was one of the most NBA ready point guards on the offensive end ever, and was so valuable to the Blazers that he led the league in minutes last season. He was very bad on the defensive end, and will need to improve somewhat for a defensively challenged Portland team.

12) Ty Lawson Lawson is another player coming off a much improved season, as his tutelage under Andre Miller seems to have paid off. He'll be asked to use his speed even more on offense this year, as Andre Iguodala left for the Warriors.

13) Mike Conley Conley had more offensive responsibility last year, and will need to further his game even more for the Grizzlies to be contenders. He has a very quick first step with the ball, and last season developed a better sense of movement without the ball while one of his bigs was going to work.

14) Jeff Teague Teague broke out in the playoffs a few years ago when Kirk Hinrich got hurt, and hasn't looked back since then. He should mesh well with newcomer Paul Millsap, and looks like a great bargain piece for the Hawks.

15) George Hill Hill is an excellent point guard for Indiana's smash mouth offense. He might be the best player in the league at making entry passes to post, and is a solid spot up shooter as well. On defense, his length and ability to get around picks gives the Pacers the option of playing him on shooting guards at times.

16) Steve Nash Nash can't play defense anymore, and he's hardly a lock to stay healthy. But he still offers great playmaking and solid spot up shooting for a Lakers team that might be without Kobe Bryant for a while.

17) Brandon Jennings Jennings will have to redefine the way he plays in Detroit, as he won't be allowed to take as many atrocious shots. His decision making will be key for a Pistons team trying to make the playoffs.

18) Ricky Rubio Rubio might be the best passer in the league, and should see his assist numbers go up as the Timberwolves actually signed some players who can shoot this year. He's also a better defender than most things, using his length to fill the passing lanes.

19) Kemba Walker Walker's scoring touch was one of the few bright spots for the Bobcats last season. It'll be interesting to see how he plays off of a post scorer in Al Jefferson.

20) Goran Dragic Dragic is likely to be traded this season, as Eric Bledsoe will likely move to point guard in the future. He's a solid playmaker who could help several contenders.

21) Jeremy Lin Lin couldn't build on his amazing run with the Knicks last season in Houston. But his role will be simplified this year with Dwight Howard in the fold, and he presumably won't try to do too much (which seemed like the problem last season).

22) Jose Calderon Calderon can't defend anymore, which will be an issue next to Monta Ellis next season. But he still has excellent courtvision and should be a nightmare to defend in the pick and roll with Dirk Nowitzki.

23) Isaiah Thomas Thomas will probably come off the bench so Greivis Vasquez can start, but he's a great third guard capable of lighting up the scoreboard. There are still too many shoot first players in Sacramento, however, so how he fits in the Kings future plans remains unclear.

24) Greivis Vasquez Vasquez brings a player who actually likes to set up his teammates, and will definitely benefit his teammates. He looks to build on an unlikely outstanding season last year, which saw him first in the league in total assists.

25) Raymond Felton Felton looked better (both physically and on the court) back with the Knicks, but still needs to improve his efficiency to be the playmaker the Knicks want at point guard.

26) Jameer Nelson Nelson's deal was bizarre when it was signed, but he's now the veteran on a rebuilding Magic team. If Orlando can get anything of value for him, he'd almost certainly move up this list.

27) Ramon Sessions Sessions chose to go to Charlotte and still was able to get his points last year. He's still a scoring threat, but isn't the kind of playmaker or defender most teams look for in their starting point guard. Still, he's an excellent third guard.

28) Brandon Knight will need to make it as a point guard, as he isn't big enough to defend most shooting guards. His decision making did seem to get better as the season went on last year, and he'll be asked to anchor what will likely be a woeful Bucks offense.

29) Jarrett Jack Jack is a great option off the bench for Cleveland. He probably played a little over his head last year, but is still a dynamic scorer. If he can learn how to play with Irving, he could see a lot of crunch time minutes.

30) Kyle Lowry Lowry should shoot up this list during the year, but can't start any higher because of how poorly he played last year. All the tools are there, though, and he should be much better in his first season as the unquestioned starter in Toronto.