UTAH JAZZ ARE PLACING THEIR BETS, AND THE GAMBLES ARE WORTH IT

By: Drew Marion

Don’t expect Utah to compete for the title this year. In fact, don’t expect them to compete for a playoff spot either. However, this does not mean you should be ignoring what the front office is doing right now.

The Jazz recently signed Derrick Favors to an extension, as his rookie contract expires after this year. The terms of the contract are for 4 years and $47.7 million dollars. In addition, they have until 11:59 PM on Halloween night to sign Gordon Hayward to an extension before the deadline. The two sides are in talks, and all signs indicate that Hayward could end up with more money than Favors.

Why are they paying for such unproven commodities? Hayward couldn’t start over Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye last year, and Favors has 17 starts over the past two seasons. Well, these gambles could end up paying huge dividends for the Jazz in the coming years. First, let’s look at how Utah's salary cap would be affected.

If we assume that Hayward gets 4 years for around $14 million a year, the Jazz have set up their roster with plenty of flexibility once the season ends. The only guaranteed deals they’ll have for next season are Hayward, Favors, Trey Burke, Rudy Gobert, Jeremy Evans, and the recently extended Enes Kanter and Alec Burks. If Hayward is extended at the anticipated price, the Jazz would only have $40.5 million in player salaries. With the salary cap expected to rise from $58.6 million to over $60 million next year, Utah has plenty of space to sign a quality free agent as well as both 2014 first-round picks.

So, Utah provided themselves with cap room. Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean anything if the players on the roster don’t perform. Fortunately, the players Utah has singled out here have a great chance to outperform these contracts.

With Trey Burke out for up to 3 months due to a broken finger, Hayward will have even a bigger role on offense for the Jazz to start the year. He is a terrific 3-point shooter at over 41% last season, but also has the size to post up smaller defenders. His pick-and-roll ability is improving, something that can also be said about Derrick Favors.

Hayward averaged 14 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists off the bench last year, while also providing quality defense. He is 6’-8”, and has the quickness to defend multiple positions. Just last season Hayward held opposing shooting guards and small forwards to PERs of 13.6 and 12.4. Obviously, some credit must be given to the overall structure of the team last season, but those numbers indicate Hayward is an above average, versatile defender.

It’s difficult to have an opinion on a contract that isn’t signed, or might not be signed at all given how close we are to the deadline. But looking at the extensions given last year to first rounders from 2009, it’s clear that 4 years for $14 million isn’t farfetched. James Harden received his 5 year, $60 million deal while DeMar DeRozan got 4 years for $38 million. Hayward is not the offensive presence that Harden is, though he was 11th among shooting guards in points per 48 minutes with 23.2 last year.

Hayward will certainly get more than DeRozan given his abilities on both ends of the floor. Not only is he a better defender, but Hayward shoots much better from beyond the arc. His ability to spread defenses out and go inside and use his size is certainly worth $14 million a year.

It might seem risky, but Hayward is a terrific two way player who’s likely to get larger offers this offseason due to his athleticism and offensive skillset.

Derrick Favors signed his extension already, and it is a steal. Even though he has yet to be a full time starter, Favors has all the tools to be a dominant big man. His defense is excellent already: Favors blocked 3.5 shots per 48 minutes last year, and altered countless more. With Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson gone, Favors will be looked to be more than a rim protector this year, though.

Derrick Favors is my pick for Most Improved Player this season. With the chance to start, Favors should put up very good numbers. Looking at his per 48 minute averages last season, Favors piled up 19.5 points and 14.7 rebounds. While that was as a backup for the most part, those are still impressive figures for a third-year player.

Given the state of free agents this offseason and next, it’s certain that a team looks at Favors’ potential and numbers and offers a max-level contract. If teams know they have no chance getting LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony next offseason, putting that money towards a quality defensive big man with a solid offensive game to boot would not be a mistake. Also, consider the likelihood that Favors is able to put his offensive game together, and approaches those averages per game. A max deal would be in the mix if his contract were to run out.

Comparing Favors' deal to the contract Serge Ibaka signed last year around this time with Oklahoma City makes the deal look even better. While Ibaka is another rim protector and defensive force, Favors has much more potential on offense. Ibaka will receive $12.3 million per year, so Favors will be paid less while providing much more value on both ends of the floor.

Even if Favors doesn’t become the type of player the the Jazz hope him to be, the extension still won't be crippling to the team. Surprisingly, $12 million a year still isn’t really overpaying for him. Again, looking at last year’s extensions given to first-round draft picks, Taj Gibson’s contract stands out. Another solid defensive big man, although his offensive prowess leaves him as a backup for the Bulls.

Gibson had per 48 minute averages of 17 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks. His contract is also for about $8.5 million a year. If Favors only plays as well as he did last year, he will outperform Gibson on the floor while getting about $3.5 million more a year. Add into this the rising salary cap for next year, and if Favors is considered overpaid, it would only be very slightly.

Both moves by the Jazz front office are terrific bets. Not only does Utah solidify their core on young talent with very high potential, but there is still room left in the cap to add free agents alongside next years draft picks. While Utah might not compete with the top teams in the West this year, they are building a foundation of great players on very team-friendly contracts.