Anyone who didn't know about Paul
George was probably surprised to see a third-year player go
toe-to-toe with LeBron James in the conference finals. George and the
Pacers ultimately fell short against the Heat, and any chance of
dethroning the champs this year may hinge on George, the team's best
player, taking another step.
But George isn't sneaking up on anyone
this year. And, after taking a decisive step forward last season and
moving from #75 to #13 in ESPN's NBA rank, can George actually get
much better?
While it may seem like George has
peaked, there is still room for significant growth on the offensive
end. Specifically, if George can be a much more efficient player, he
could become one of the ten best players in the league.
George's defense has grown to the point
where he is one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league.
While George was playing small forward, opposing small forwards only
had a 12.0 PER, according to 82games.com. (An average PER is 15.0,
and 12.0 is worse than the top 42 qualifying small forwards in the
league). His height, length and athleticism cause problems for any
small forward, and it's his size and instincts that make him the
prototype defender for James and Kevin Durant.
As he gets more experience, George
should be able to be more disciplined on the defensive end as well.
George tied with Matt Barnes for the second most fouls per game by
small forwards last season at 2.9 (Carmelo Anthony led this category
at 3.1, and this was a result of playing a ton of power forward as
well). With Danny Granger's health still an uncertainty, the Pacers
will continue to rely on George as much as last year. He must trust
his defensive instincts and resist from the unnecessary reaching
fouls he picks up from time to time.
He should lower his foul total from
last season, but George's defensive improvement will be incremental.
Where he must make more drastic improvement is on the offensive end.
His raw numbers look decent enough, as
he averaged 17.4 points per game and 4.1 assists per game last year.
However, George was not very efficient offensively.
With Granger missing almost the entire
season, George was asked to be a high usage player for the first time
in his career. And, like most players in their first high-usage
season, George had some problems with turnovers. He was fourth among
small forwards in turnovers per game last season, and two of the
players ahead of him (Durant and James) have a significantly higher
usage rate.
George had a big problem with
decision-making in the pick and roll early on in the season. George
tried to split the double team too often, and, according to an
article by Zach Lowe, Pacers coach Frank Vogel almost scrapped all
pick and roll sets for George during his turnover prone first few
months.
Fortunately for Indiana, George
improved in the pick and roll and his turnover rate went down as the
season went on. However, he still forced the issue too much when
Indiana went into a scoring rut. The Pacers went through bouts of
inconsistency on offense, and George would often respond by trying to
handle too much of a scoring load by himself. He must continue to
trust the offense, and this, coupled with the natural progression of
a player in his second year as a main option, should reduce his
turnover rate this season.
Another area that George needs to
improve is his shooting percentage. George ranked 19th out
of 25 qualifying small forwards in field goal percentage. His 42.7%
shooting pales in comparison to other elite small forwards. Even with
their high usage ratings, LeBron James and Kevin Durant shot 56.5%
and 51.0%, respectively. Even Carmelo Anthony shot 44.9%.
For a player who shot a lot from the
outside, George shot a respectable 36.2% from 3 last season. But
George had issues inside the arc, shooting only 45.7%. For a
shotmaker like George, this number has to be higher.
Part of George's issues came from his
shot selection. As mentioned before, George sometimes had problems
forcing the action. This was especially true when he got offensive
rebounds. Often, George felt the need to a force up a difficult shot,
as his eFG% after he grabbed an offensive rebound was only 41.0%,
according to nbawowy.com. This was the lowest among all qualifying
Pacers.
George also didn't perform as well as
expected around the basket. He tended to fade away on too many shots
near the rim, and, as a result, didn't draw enough contact.
George only averaged 3.5 free throws
per game last year, half the number of James and much less than
Durant's 9.3. All elite perimeter players can get to the rim when
their shots aren't falling, and this is an ability George hasn't
shown consistently enough.
It may not seem like a big deal, but
getting to the free throw line is a crucial part of most superstars'
games. 9 of the top 10 players in free throws attempted last season
were All-Stars. Paul George must learn to get more contact in the
lane, and get to the line more often. If he can, not only will he get
more high percentage looks at the line, but some of those missed two
point attempts in the lane will go away as well. His shooting
percentage and points per game would both receive a bump, giving him
a significant spike in efficiency.
The early returns on George this season
are very good. Obviously, it has been only three games, but George
has shown a conscious effort to get to the line, averaging over 7
free throws a game so far. While it is doubtful that will average
25.7 all season, if he can continue to be efficient, George could
finally become a top 10 player in the league.
No comments:
Post a Comment